7th Grade Probability Unit 6
This project is an introduction to probability. Students will learn about probability, how to calculate probability, empirical and theoretical probabilities, probability models, and other important related vocabulary.
Goals of this unit:
CCGPS Standards Addressed in this Unit:
This chart shows a general plan for instruction:
- Introduce probability and related vocabulary
- Model real world experiments through trials and simulations and use these experiments to predict the probability of a given event.
- Introduce differences between experimental and theoretical probabilities.
- Introduce the law of large numbers and how experimental probability approaches theoretical probability when the number of trials is large.
- Enable students to understand differences between independent and dependent events.
- Enable students to display the probability of events using probability models such as tree diagrams, organized lists, and tables.
CCGPS Standards Addressed in this Unit:
- MGSE7.SP.5 Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.
- MGSE7.SP.6 Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency. Predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.
- MGSE7.SP.7 Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare experimental and theoretical probabilities of events. If the probabilities are not close, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.
- MGSE7.SP.7a Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.
- MGSE7.SP.7b Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open ‐ end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?
- MGSE7.SP.8 Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation.
- MGSE7.SP.8a Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs.
- MGSE7.SP.8b Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g., “rolling double sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event.
- MGSE7.SP.8c Explain ways to set up a simulation and use the simulation to generate frequencies for compound events. For example, if 40% of donors have type A blood, create a simulation.
- Lesson One: Introduction to Probability & Simulations (1-2 days)
- Lesson Two: Introduction to Experimental & Theoretical Probability (1-2 days)
- Lesson Three: Introduction to Compound Probability (2-3 days)
- Lesson Four: Unit Project (3-4 days)
This chart shows a general plan for instruction:
This project was made my Brooke DeVore, Wayne Cook, & Blair Cain.